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Raihan Ali
Jul 14, 2022
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It Is Related to Inflation and Interest Rate Hikes. Will the Market Fall After a Rate Hike? If Five Rate Hikes Are Expected This Year, Perhaps We Can Look at Past Historical Trajectories and Understand What Is Likely to Happen in a Post-Rate World. Looking Back at the U.s. Stock Market, in 2018, Which Was Relatively Close to Us, Although the Interest Rate Did Not Increase Five Times, It Actually Increased the Interest Rate Four Times. Looking at the S&p500 Remuneration in 2018 Alone, It Fell by About 4% That Year. If, Starting in 1970, There Will Be Consecutive Years of Interest Rate Hikes, the Results Against the Market t shirt design Would Be as Shown in the Table Below: Image-4 Produced by the Author a Total of Eight Rate Hikes of These Seven Times the Market Gave Positive Returns the Average Gain for the S&p 500 Is Around 23% from 2004 to 2006, the Last Time the Number of Interest Rate Hikes Reached Five Times Was Between 2004 and 2006. During This Period, the Return of the S&p500 Came to 17.74%. Who Said That After a Rate Hike, the Market Will Fall? Since This Time a New Cycle of Rate Hikes Is Likely to Begin, We Might as Well Take a Year of More Than Four Rate Hikes in the Past and Further Break Down the Market’s Performance in That Year to See If There Are Any Unexpected Data. Image-5 Produced by the Author the Famous Great Depression of 1973-1974 the Chance of a Positive Rate Hike This Year Is Nearly 70% in the Past More Than Four Times the Annual Return of Interest Rate Hikes, the Return of the U.s. Market Has Not Always Ended Down, but More of a Rise, Which Is Very Different from What Most People Think. in Other Words, the Market Decline
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